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June 21, 2002 08:47 pm ET - research by amer, amateras

HP Gamblers

Lineage Playforum (http://community.playforum.net:8080/bbs/prog/column?action=read&iid=10051003&kid=1178) reports three very .. persistent people who are using the mathematical principles of randomness (even though they might not know it) to get fantastic HP on their characters.

These three characters spent 3 months doing nothing but levelling up and down their characters from 5 to 6 and back to 5. They feel that characters can be "blessed" and that the trick is to level up on something much higher than you (like a werewolf) and to die to something much higher than you (like a guard).
They also said that if they didn't have at least 58 HP by level 6, they would delete the account and create a new account, since they believed that account to be not blessed. In the end, they have STR knights with as much HP as CON knights.

Is there a trick? Is this possible?

Well, according to the law of randoms, if you perform a random event often enough, there is a possibility of getting a bunch of good events in a row. For example, if you flip a coin 1024 times, although it seems impossible, it *is* possible that you will get a streak of 10 heads in a row once.

By the same logic, it is possible to get a good level up, a small level down, a good level up, a small level down and so on. For example, You have 50 HP at level 5, then 62 HP at level 6, and if you're lucky, level down to 5 with 54 HP, and get a 12 HP level up to 66 HP.

This is the same principle as gambling. If you play blackjack, there are times where you have streaks of amazing hands, just in a row. All you have to do is play often enough and it will happen. Incidentally, there are also a ton of superstitions around blackjack (change the table if you are getting bad hands, etc)

The difference between a good gambler and a bad gambler is that a good gambler knows when to quit and a bad gambler always thinks that even BETTER will come. For example, in one of our mathematical models, we had 107 HP at death cycle #1745 (would you know to quit then?), but at #2556 we had 7 HP (at level 6!).

In yet another model, at #3689 we once had 262 HP! (again, if you go past this HP, the next 7000 trials give you less (#10,000 = 75HP) -- ask yourself, would YOU stop at 262?)

Here is an example of how it might go if you just go from level 5 to level 6 over and over again:
5,000 repeats of level up to 6/level down to 5, with randomly getting/losing 10-16 HP on a level up or down

[correction - thanks Melantus] - The same random formula is used for level up and down, but you have to ask yourself if you would take that risk. If you do it 10 times, you might end up with worse HP than before. Even after 100 times, you shouldn't expect much result. It's only after thousands of times that you *might* be lucky enough to get something good. But would you even know when to quit? Is levelling up and down from 5 and 6 really any fun? Why play Lineage if that's all you're gonna do?

Okay, looks like some people are having trouble understanding this one. This is not a bug, it's not a trick, it's not a cheat, it's not a hack. It's *mathematics*. If you don't like math, or don't understand math, this will be hard to accept, but believe me, it's true.

Below is a link for an example level up and level down. You'll notice that each level up and level down is between 10 and 16, randomly. Character could level up 16 and level down 10. Or level down 16 and level up to 10. You'll see that this character reaches 197 HP (on line 6686), but he also reaches 1 HP, several times. Just take a look at it. It takes *alot* of time, but mathematically speaking, the level up/level down "trick" is not so much a trick, but rolling the dice.

Peak of 197 HP with no trick

Think about it this way. Have you ever played Monopoly and got three doubles in a row? Did you do it on purpose? Were you using a dice trick? No. It was random. If you sit in front of a pair of dice long enough, you *will* get 10 doubles in a row. This is what they are doing. They are levelling up and down until they find a streak of level ups that are better than their level downs.

June 21, 2002 08:56 pm ET (#1)

Melantus
NC Staff
6 posts
12-04-01

It runs the same random hp check on level down as up. Odds are you could get a lucky "roll" and gain some high hp on a level up. You could then get lucky again on the next level up. You could also get unlucky and get a lower hp amount. If you level back down, you will have the same hp roll done, but this time removing hp.
Law of averages say that it will generally come out to an average number overall. Sure you can get lucky and beat the average total. It's the same odds as getting unlucky and getting less then the average total.

There isn't any "bless character". It's just a perception of how the rolls are done.

If you look at that chart, you will see at the middle of 175 hp that roughly across the board, about half the squiggly line is below 175 hp and half above (it actually looks like 55% is below and 55% above, but sometimes averages will do that)

Do another chart, and it should turn out roughly similar.